基于Monte Carlo-SHALSTAB模型的滑坡危险性评价——以福建省德化县为例  

Assessment of Landslide Hazard Based on Monte Carlo-SHALSTAB Model

作　　者：陈悦丽[1,2] 陈德辉[2] 李泽椿[1,3] 黄俊宝 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081 [4]福建省地质环境监测中心,福建福州350002

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第4期101-106,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430106);中国气象局数值预报发展专项(GRAPES)

摘　　要：滑坡灾害是福建省德化县最常见的地质灾害之一,特别是在雨季。研究表明岩土参数的空间分布非均匀性是滑坡危险性评价不确定性的主要来源,因此将岩土参数,特别是凝聚力和内摩擦角,看作随机变量。考虑岩土参数的空间变化以及非均匀性,提出了一种用来进行滑坡危险性评价的可能性模型。模型首先利用Monte Carlo方法随机生成参数值,然后应用SHALSTAB(SHAllow Landslide STABility model)模型计算安全系数,最后统计研究单元的失稳概率。以福建省德化县的滑坡危险性为例,通过历史滑坡资料与滑坡危险区评价结果进行比较,有90%以上的历史滑坡点位于危险区域内。其中31.70%的滑坡点落在低危险区,9.83%的滑坡点落在危险区,30.96%的滑坡点落在较高危险区,17.94%的滑坡点落在高危险区内。说明该模型在滑坡危险性评价中具有较好的应用前景。Landslides are a common geological hazard during the rainy season in Dehua. The parameters of soil materials used in the model of the hazard assessment have been identified as the major source of uncertainty because of their spatial variability,so these parameters（ such as cohesion and friction） are considered as random variables. This study proposes a probabilistic analysis method to assess shallow landslide susceptibility by integrating an infinite slope model-SHALSTAB（ SHAllow Landslide STABility model） with GIS（ Geographic Information System） and Monte Carlo simulation,taking into consideration the inherent uncertainty and variability in put parameters. The proposed approach is applied to assess the landslide hazard in Dehua to evaluate its feasibility. In the comparison with the historical landslides in Dehua,the probabilistic analysis showed that 90% of the observed landslides located in the risk area. Furthermore,31. 70% of the historical landslides located in the lower-risk areas; 9. 83% of the historical landslides located in the dangerous areas; 30. 96% located in the more dangerous areas; 17. 94% located in the most dangerous areas. The model results show high accuracy basing on the model verification and validation.

关 键 词：滑坡 滑坡危险性评价 MONTECARLO SHALSTAB模型 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]