基于作物损失率的风暴潮增水灾害对农业产量影响评估--以珠江三角洲地区为例  

The impact of storm surge disaster on the agricultural production based on crop loss ratio with the Pearl River Delta as a case

作　　者：康蕾[1,2] 马丽[1] 刘毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《灾害学》2015年第4期194-201,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家“九七三”重点基础项目“全球变化研究国家重大科学计划项目”(2012CB955702)

摘　　要：在借鉴相关经验的基础上建立风暴潮增水农业产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,并以2010年为例,估算并分析了不同风暴潮增水情景下珠三角地区耕地受灾空间分布特征及农业产量损失情况。结果表明,低估计情况下研究区耕地风暴潮淹没总面积占耕地总面积3.61%,高估计时该比重增加到5.47%,其中广州、江门、珠海、汕尾、惠州、佛山等地市受风暴潮影响耕地淹没情况较为严重;且随风暴潮灾害的加剧,多地市淹没高度在最大值150 cm以上的耕地淹没面积增加显著。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜的损失产量普遍较高,其次是稻谷,花生受灾害影响较小。其中蔬菜灾损最严重的为广州,稻谷损失最严重的为江门。本文较为细致地刻画了珠三角地区海平面上升及风暴潮增水灾害对农业的影响,以期为珠江三角洲地区作物种植布局、生产以及防灾减灾提供定量和定位的科学依据。Based on the current research and relevant experience,the evaluation model of yield losses caused by sea level rise and storm surge is established. We take the Pearl River Delta in Guangdong Province as study area,based on the DEM and land-use data,and obtained the local crop planting structure,crop rotation pattern,crop yields and loss rate of different crops under different flood height,to estimate and analyze spatial distribution characteristics of agriculture disaster and production losses in the Pearl River Delta area affected by sea level rise and storm surge in 2010. The results show that under low estimation the total area of arable land flooded by storm surge accounted for 3. 61% of total region and increased to 5. 47% at high estimation. Guangzhou,Jiangmen,Zhuhai,Shanwei,Huizhou,Foshan are cities where the arable land inundated is more serious. Moreover,with the storm surge disaster increasing,the arable land of which the submerged height is over 150 cm in many cities increased significantly. From the perspective of the agricultural production losses,the yield loss of vegetables is generally high,followed by rice and peanut was less affected by the disaster. The loss of vegetables is severest in Guangzhou and that of rice is severest in Jiangmen. In this paper,the influence of disaster to agriculture caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Pearl River Delta is described more detailed,in order to provide the scientific quantitative and location basis for crop planting pattern and production and disaster prevention and relief.

关 键 词：风暴潮灾害 耕地淹没 农业损失 珠江三角洲 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S42[农业科学—植物保护]