建国以来我国沙眼流行情况变化规律分析研究  

The epidemiological characteristics changing of trachoma in recent sixty years in China

作　　者：胡爱莲[1] 蔡啸谷[1] 乔利亚[1] 张烨[1] 张旭[1] 孙葆忱[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院北京同仁眼科中心北京市眼科研究所北京市眼科学与视觉科学重点实验室,北京100730

出　　处：《中国实用眼科杂志》2015年第9期985-990,共6页Chinese Journal of Practical Ophthalmology

摘　　要：目的 通过文献荟萃（Meta）分析方法对我国建国以来沙眼防控工作取得的成果进行评估总结.方法 系统检索1950 ～ 2015年中国全文数据总库（cnkI）、万方数据库、中国生物医学文献数据库（cBM）及卫生行政部门正式发布的涉及中国沙眼患病率的文献.采用贝叶斯poisson-gamma模型对单一研究和多个研究归并的患病率及95％可信区间进行估计.为研究沙眼患病率和沙眼致盲情况随时间变化规律,考虑到各单个研究间之间存在变异,将研究时间分成6个时间段,每个时间段包括10年,每个时间段资料通过贝叶斯poison-gamma模型进行归并,分别计算每个时间段归并后的患病率及95％可信区间,并在此基础上估计随时间变化患病或致盲的相对风险度.结果 共收集了21个全人群沙眼患病率报告数据,其中上世纪50年代为9个,60年代2个,70年代为0,80年代为5个,90年代为3个;2000年后为2个.报告患病率最高为98.00％,最低为2.00％,不同模型对不同年代沙眼报告患病及95％可信区间估计结果,显示随着年代的变化,沙眼患病风险呈现快速下降趋势,上世纪60年代达到建国以来的平均水平,之后患病风险度快速下降,最终达到较低的水平.结论 目前我国沙眼患流行已得到有效控制,沙眼患病风险极低,沙眼已经不是威胁我国人民视觉健康的主要公共卫生问题。Objective To make evaluation summary of the results of trachoma prevention and control achieved since the foundation of the state by way of Meta （Meta） analysis.Methods Make system retrieval of the following database and literature, including Chinese National Knowledge Infra-structure （CNKI） Database from 1950 to 2015, Wanfang database, Chinese Biomedical database （CBM） and literatures related to Chinese trachoma prevalence rate from the information officially released by Medi-cal Administrative Command.Bayesian Poisson-Gamma Model is applied to estimate the consolidated prevalence rate and 95% of confidence interval obtained from sin-gle study and multiple studies.In order to research the time-varying change law of trachoma prevalence rate and trachoma blinding and consider that variation exists in different single study, the study time is divided into 6 time periods with each lasting for 10 years.The information and data obtained from each time period is consolidated via Bayesian Poisson-Gamma Model and then respectively figure out the consolidated prevalence rate and 95% of confidence interval.Finally, based on the foregoing, estimate the relative risk degrees of time-varying and blinding.Results 21 report data of human trachoma prevalence rate are collected, among which 9 are from the 1950s, 2 are from 1960s, 0 is from 1970s, 5 are from 1980s, 3 are from 1990s of the last century and 2 are from 2000.The highestprevalence rate reported is 98.00% while the lowest 2.00%.From the estimation results of trachoma reports and 95% of confidence interval obtained by different models in different years, we can see that trachoma prevalence risk indicates a rapidly decreasing trend with the change of time, it reaches average in 1960s of the last century and decline rapidly after that, eventu-ally reaches a relatively low level.Conclusion The current epidemic trachoma is under effective control in China with very low trachoma prevalence risk.Trachoma is already not the major public health issue to threaten our

关 键 词：沙眼 患病率 META分析 

分 类 号：R-37[医药卫生]