不确定条件下武器装备体系发展规划模型  

Systems Development Planning Model on Weapon System Under Uncertain Conditions

作　　者：刘旭[1] 李为民[1] 宋文静[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院,陕西西安710051

出　　处：《现代防御技术》2015年第5期26-32,51,共8页Modern Defence Technology

摘　　要：不确定条件下的武器装备体系发展规划是考虑形势变化所带来未知影响下的武器装备规划研究。建立了确定性条件下的武器装备体系发展规划模型,其中引入了Logistic函数反映投入资金与武器能力值之间的映射关系;用证券市场风险投资理论阐述了武器装备发展规划中的不确定性;利用Markowitz理论建立了不确定条件下的武器装备体系发展规划模型;通过某侦察预警监视体系建设规划案例,验证了所建模型和算法的有效性。The system development planning on weapon system under uncertain conditions is to study weapon system development planning model considering changing conditions. The systems development planning model of weapon system under certain conditions is built; the logistic function is introduced into the model to reflect the mapping relationship between investment funds and weapon capability. The un- certain conditions for the system development planning are explained with securities market risk invest- ment theory. And the model under uncertain conditions is built based on Markowitz theory. The effective- ness of the proposed model and algorithm are demonstrated by a portfolio planning example of intelli- gence, surveillance, and reconnaissance weapon system.

关 键 词：不确定条件 武器装备体系 发展规划模型 投入资金 武器能力值 LOGISTIC MARKOWITZ 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学] E917[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]