基于数据驱动的区域水资源智能配置研究  

Research on intelligent allocation of regional water resources based on data-driven approach

作　　者：刘国良[1] 顾正华[1] 赵世凯[1] 尚淑丽[1] 李永强[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]嘉兴市水利局,浙江嘉兴314000

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2015年第5期38-45,共8页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50909085);浙江省水利厅科技计划资助项目(RC1106);长江水利委员会长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2012322/KY);金华市科学技术研究计划资助项目(2012-3-003;2013-3-027)

摘　　要：针对目前存在的水资源短缺、水资源利用不合理、水资源配置理论不完善的问题,研究了一种基于数据驱动的区域水资源智能配置方法,以提高区域水资源利用合理度,为区域水资源规划与管理提供技术支持。首先提出由水资源配置决策模型、水资源配置方案评价模型及配置预案库等构成的水资源智能配置模式,其中,水资源配置方案评价模型由基于层次分析-模糊综合评价法的水资源合理配置评价指标体系构建,用于对水资源配置方案进行评价,它一方面对配置方案进行预检验,另一方面为配置决策模型提供配置预案等经验知识;水资源配置决策模型采用人工神经网络在对配置预案库进行学习的基础上建立,用于提供初始配置方案。应用嘉兴市2010年相关数据对该模式的有效性进行了检验,结果表明,在水资源总量不变的情况下,分别考虑嘉兴市整体协调发展和重点发展兼顾整体的两种用水思路,基于数据驱动的水资源智能配置模式均能给出符合预期目标的水资源分配方案,并且具有自适应、容错性、智能化等特征,从而为区域水资源规划与管理提供有效的支撑工具。Aiming at the existing issues of the shortage, unreasonable utilization and incomplete allocation theories of water resources, an intelligent method of regional water resources allocation is investigated on the basis of data- driven approach in order to improve the rationality of utilizing regional water resources and provide technical support for the planning and management of the regional water resources. Firstly, a framework, made up of the decision- making model, scheme evaluation model and plan base of the water resources allocation, is presented. The evaluation model is structured with the evaluation index system of the water resources allocation based on analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy evaluation method. On one hand, it preliminarily examines the allocation scheme from the decision-making model or after adjustment; on the other hand, it provides allocation plans to the base as the decision-making model＇s training samples. The decision-making model is built on the basis of artificial neural network being trained according to the plan base, which is used to provide an initial allocation scheme. The effectiveness of the framework is verified using the relevant data of 2010 from Jiaxing city. The results indicate that the intelligent allocation framework of the regional water resources based on data-driven approach can generate the appropriate allocation schemes of the water resources based on two strategies of using water in Jiaxing city, i.e. harmoniously developing and considering both regional and overall water development with a constant amount of water resources. And as an effective support tool for the planning and management of the regional water resources, the scheme is of self-adaptation, fault-tolerance and intelligence.

关 键 词：水资源配置 数据驱动模型 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 人工神经网络 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]