装备修理目标价格测算的灰色组合预测模型  

Grey Forecast Combination Model for Estimating Target Price of Equipment Repair

作　　者：尚凡葵 安天霞 谢力[3] 孙胜祥[3] 

机构地区：[1]海军驻青岛造船厂军事代表室,山东青岛266000 [2]海军青岛航保修理厂,山东青岛266000 [3]海军工程大学装备经济管理系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2015年第5期635-639,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13GJ003-258;14GJ003-149)

摘　　要：针对装备修理目标价格测算中的小样本和振荡特性,以灰色预测模型及各种相关改进模型为单项预测模型,综合考虑直接应用灰色关联度难以保证组合预测的无偏性和灰色关联度计算的准确性,以及基于灰色绝对关联度的最优组合预测模型在单项预测模型数量多于样本数量时无法求解和绝对关联度信息包含不足的问题,建立了基于灰色关联度排序的装备修理目标价格测算的组合预测模型。通过实例分析证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。Equipment repair price estimation usually has small samples with turbulence characteristics.In the combination model, individual models come from various grey forecast model, and the combination method is based on grey relational analy-sis.Because the unbiasedness of forecast and the accuracy of grey correlation degree are difficult to meet in the existing grey com-bination model, and the optimal forecast combination model based on grey absolute correlation degree cannot solve, and the infor-mation conceived in grey absolute correlation degree is insufficient, a forecast combination model based on rank of grey correlation degree was proposed.Finally an example was given to verify the availability of this method.

关 键 词：装备修理 目标价格 组合预测 GM(1 1)模型 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]