基于Copula理论的甘肃省干旱特征分析  

Analysis on the Drought Characteristics of Gansu Province Based on Copula Theory

作　　者：崔刚 韩曦[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区水利水电勘测设计院,内蒙古呼和浩特010020 [2]北京金水信息技术发展有限公司,北京100053

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第11期77-80,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071025)

摘　　要：干旱受降水、气温、日照时间等多因素的影响,通常采用干旱强度、干旱历时等多种特征变量来共同描述。传统的多变量分布模型通常要求两变量或多变量具有相同的边缘分布。为更好地表征干旱多变量间的相关关系及干旱特征,基于Copula函数,建立干旱强度和干旱历时的联合分布来描述干旱特征,并对甘肃省的干旱特征进行了分析。结果表明:短期干旱历时情况下,干旱事件的重现期主要受干旱强度的影响,随干旱强度的增大而增加;相同的干旱强度,随历时的增加,重现期增加明显;重现期有时受干旱强度和干旱历时的共同影响。Drought is influenced by multi-factors, such as precipitation, temperature and sunshine time, etc. So models of one certain factor is too difficult to describe drought character entirely;on the other hand, two or more variables are required to belong to the same marginal distribution in traditional multivariate distribution model. Aimed at these shortages, based on Copula function, a joint distribution was established in the paper to improve the existing methods for describing drought characters and relationships among multi-variables, and then the drought characteristics of Gansu Province were analyzed. The results show that the drought stress is affected by the drought intensity, and increases with the increasing of drought intensity;the same drought intensity increases with the increasing of the duration of the period; the recurrence period is sometimes influenced by the drought intensity and the duration of the drought.

关 键 词：COPULA理论 干旱特征 多变量分布模型 甘肃省 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]