福建省沿海冬半年东北大风的数值预报释用方法研究  

Study on interpretation of numerical prediction method on northeast winds along the coast of Fujian Province in winter half year

作　　者：曾瑾瑜[1] 刘爱鸣[1] 高珊[1] 冷典颂[1] 吴幸毓[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350001

出　　处：《海洋预报》2015年第5期61-68,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：福建省气象局青年科技专项(2015q26);福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2014J01147);福建省气象局自研业务成果专项项目(2015z02)

摘　　要：基于福建省冬半年沿海32个自动站的极大风观测资料和WRF、EC细网格以及T639 3种模式预报的10 m风场资料,将模式预报的风速与观测资料进行对比分析,结果表明:WRF和EC细网格的预报效果较好,有可参考性,T639可参考性不高。模式预报结果相比实况极大风速偏小,预报平均绝对误差由沿海向内陆逐渐减小,由中部向南北逐渐减小。择取预报效果较好的WRF和EC细网格模式,对沿海代表站点进行风速集成,建立集成预报方程,并进行集成订正。误差订正后,与误差较小的WRF模式相比,预报准确率提高了10%左右,改善效果显著,为提高福建省沿海冬半年东北大风的预报准确率提供定量的预报方法。Based on the hourly maximum wind speed data from 32 automatic observation stations located at coastal islands, and modeled 10 m wind data from WRF, EC, T639, the comparison between modeled data and actual data were analyzed. The results showed that： the prediction effect of WRF and EC thin is better, and the reference of T639 is poor. Prediction of wind speed is smaller than the maximum wind speed of observation. The spatial distribution of the error of wind speed gradually decreases from coastal to the inland, gradually decreases from the center to the north and south. Wind speed on the coastal stations was developed by integrating WRF and EC models which have good prediction effect. The integrated forecasting equation was established, and integrated revised. After error correction, compared with the WRF model whose error was smaller, the forecasting accuracy is improved by about 10% which are significantly improved. This method provides a quantitative forecasting method in order to improve the accuracy of prediction of northeast winds along the coast of Fujian in winter half year.

关 键 词：WRF EC T639 绝对误差 准确率 集成订正 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]