中长期径流预报的时间尺度  

Analysis of hydrological time-scale of mid-long term runoff forecasting

作　　者：冼翠玲 张艳军[1] 邹霞[1] 张素琼[1] 邹静[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2015年第6期739-743,共5页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51209162;51379149;51279140;51279143)

摘　　要：为研究时间尺度在中长期水文预报中的影响,选取在实际运用中较成熟的预报模型——最近邻抽样回归模型对不同时间尺度的径流序列进行建模预报.通过对三峡水库1980-2012年的逐日平均入库流量,高场、汉口、大通3个水文站1980-2012年的逐日平均流量,进行时间聚集,分别得到对应的3d、周、旬、月、季、年的平均径流量.用所建模型对以上4个站点的6个不同时间尺度的径流量进行模拟预测,结果显示随着时间尺度的增加,模拟预测结果的相对误差并非单调递增或者递减,而是先变小,后变大.研究中长期水文预报中时间尺度给预报结果带来的影响,可为水文预报精度的提高开辟新思路.In order to study the influence of hydrological time-scale on mid-long term runoff forecasting, the Nearest Neighbor Bootstrapping Regressive Model which well applied in practice is selected and estab- lished on different time scales for runoff prediction. Taking daily inflow series of Three Gorges Reservoir and daily runoff series of Gaochang, Hankou, and Datong hydrological stations from 1980 to 2012 as the research subjects, the corresponding average runoff series of six time scales （three days, week, ten days, month, season, year） are obtained by time aggregation. The runoff series at those six different time scales are simulated. The results show that the prediction accuracy is relatively low at smaller or larger scales. This study can provide new ideas for improving the accuracy of hydrological forecasting.

关 键 词：中长期径流预报 最近邻抽样回归模型 时间尺度 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]