通胀率动态与通胀惯性度量  

Inflation Dynamics and Empirical Analysis of Inflation Inertia

作　　者：陈守东[1,2] 刘洋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2015年第10期15-32,共18页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790043)的资助

摘　　要：本文从通胀惯性的理论模型出发,构建无限状态Markov区制转移的计量模型,实现对通胀惯性的有效度量。对美国通胀惯性的实证分析,证实货币政策工具的频繁使用会付出通胀惯性的代价,暴露出其单一目标货币政策框架的缺陷。我国央行的调控也已经对市场利率形成了显著的传导作用,谨慎地使用货币政策工具,使我国的通胀惯性在被货币政策短暂影响后,得以有效恢复。这表明坚持实行多目标、多手段与宏观审慎政策相结合的调控模式,对维护经济环境稳定与长期发展的重要性。十国通胀惯性的度量结果与对比分析,进一步佐证了本文观点。This article build infinite state Markov regime switching model from the inflation inertia model in theory, to achieve the effective measure of inflation inertia. An Empirical Analysis of the United States of inflation inertia, confirmed the frequent use of monetary policy instruments will pay the price of inflation inertia, exposing flaws of single goal of monetary policy framework. Regulation of the central bank already play significant role on the market interest rate by conduction mechanism, Relatively prudent use of monetary policy tools to make our country＇s inflation inertia can be effectively restored after being short - term impact of monetary policy. This indicates that insist on multi - target, multi- tool and macro -prudential policy instruments combining regulatory model, is important to maintaining a stable economic environment and long - term development. Empirical analysis of ten countries inflation inertia, give further evidence of the views of this article.

关 键 词：通胀惯性 货币政策 Gibbs算法 

分 类 号：F820.5[经济管理—财政学]