新型灰色Verhulst预测模型的参数特性  

Parameter characteristics of novel grey Verhulst prediction model

作　　者：崔杰[1,2] 刘思峰[1] 赵磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学灰色系统研究所,南京210016 [2]淮阴工学院管理工程学院,江苏淮安223003

出　　处：《控制与决策》2015年第11期2093-2096,共4页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71301060);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(13YJC630109);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(12YJA630122);江苏省"青蓝工程"人才专项基金项目(2014)

摘　　要：在灰色Verhulst模型建模机理的基础上,考虑相关因素对系统预测精度的影响,构建一种新型灰色Verhulst模型.分析该模型参数在系统特征序列与相关因素序列经数乘变换前后的量化关系,并分析数乘变换对该新模型建模精度的影响程度.研究结果表明,新型灰色Verhulst模型的建模精度与系统相关因素序列的数乘变换有关,而与系统特征序列的数乘变换无关.研究结论认为,利用数乘变换可降低该模型的建模复杂性.On the basis of the modeling mechanism of the grey Verhulst model, a novel grey Verhulst model is constructed considering related factors affecting forecasting precision of a system, and the quantitative relation of model parameters as multiple transformations acting on system characteristic sequences and its related factors sequences are analyzed. Research results show that the modeling accuracy of the novel grey Verhulst model is in relation to multiple transformation of related factors sequence of systems, but it has nothing to do with the multiple transformation of characteristics sequence of systems.Research condusion shows that multiple transformations can simplify the complexity of constructing the novel model.

关 键 词：灰色预测模型 灰色VERHULST模型 累加生成 数乘变换 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]