甘肃省电力消费影响因素的实证分析  

Positive Study on Impact Factors of Gansu Electricity Consumption

作　　者：贾艳琴 

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2015年第12期1455-1457,1548,共4页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"西北地区城镇化过程中生活用能模式的变动机制及其环境经济影响"(编号:41171437)

摘　　要：从经济发展、经济结构、城市化和居民收入水平方面,运用计量经济模型对甘肃省电力消费的影响因素进行实证研究。结果显示:1四个影响因素均与电力消费之间呈正相关;2 GDP、工业比重、城市化和城镇居民人均可支配收入各增长1%,甘肃电力消费就分别增加0.35%、0.28%、1.37%、0.10%;3城市化对甘肃电力消费增长的贡献最显著,经济增长和工业比重是影响甘肃电力消费的主要因素,而居民收入水平的影响效应相对较弱。未来甘肃经济发展和城市化进程中要保证电力需求的有效供给。This paper employed econometric model to examine the impact factors of Gansu electricity consumption from the following aspects： Economic development, economic structure, urbanization and resident income level. The results showed that：①There were positive correlation between electricity consumption and 4 impact factors. ②Where was a 1% positive change in GDP, industry ratio, urbanization and per capita disposable in- come of urban residents, it resulted a 0.35 % .0.28 % .1.37 % and 0.10% positive change respectively in electricity consumption. ③The contribu- tion of urbanization to Gansu electricity consumption was most significant, while the income of residents was relatively weak, and the main influence factors of Gansu electricity consumption were economic development and industry ratio. We should ensure the effective supply of electricity demand in the process of urbanization and Gansu economic development.

关 键 词：电力消费 经济增长 影响因素 甘肃省 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]