基于情景模拟的城市内涝动态风险评估方法  

Dynamic urban waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulations

作　　者：苏伯尼[1] 黄弘[1] 张楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第6期684-690,共7页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAK07B02);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173128,91224008);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款资助项目(2013049)

摘　　要：该文建立了一套针对城市暴雨内涝灾害的定量风险评估方法。通过二维水力学模型模拟积水的时空分布,并采用基于国内实地调查获得的脆弱性曲线估算内涝灾害损失。以福建省龙岩市新罗区为例进行了内涝风险评估,模拟了该地区不同降雨情景下的内涝时空分布和灾害损失情况。结果显示:持续时间越长、重现期越长的暴雨导致的积水和经济损失越严重,但不同的暴雨导致的积水区域在很大程度上是一致的。通过不同雨水井分布情况下经济损失总量的估算,分析了雨水井对降低城市暴雨内涝风险的作用。结果表明:雨水井可以有效降低内涝风险,但应对短时强降雨的效果有限。A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for urban waterlogging caused by rainstorms. The spatio-temporal distributions of water are simulated through a two-dimensional hydraulic model, with the losses caused by waterlogging then estimated from a vulnerability curve obtained using a domestic field investigation.An area in Xinluo District,Longyan,Fujian Province was chosen as the study area.The waterlogging risk was assessed by calculating the spatio-temporal water distribution and the disaster losses for various rainstorm scenarios.The results show that rainstorms with longer duration and longer return period cause more serious waterlogging and economic losses. The waterlogging points of different rainstorms are similar.The effects of drainage well capability on reducing the urban waterlogging risk were analyzed through economic loss estimated for various drain distributions.The results show that drainage wells effectively reduce the waterlogging risk,but the effect is limited during short and heavy rainstorms.

关 键 词：城市内涝 风险评估 情景模拟 脆弱性曲线 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]