未来气候变化情景下中国自然湿地CH_4排放的时空变化  

Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH_4 emissions over China under future climate change

作　　者：刘建功[1] 朱求安[1] 沈燕[2] 杨延征[1] 罗云鹏[1] 彭长辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学林学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中南林业科技大学生命科学与技术学院,长沙410004

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2015年第11期3467-3474,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家林业局"948"项目(2013-4-57);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41201079);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120204120007)资助

摘　　要：应用TRIPLEX-GHG模型,模拟未来气候变化背景下2006—2100年中国自然湿地生态系统CH4排放的时空变化.结果表明:保持中国现有自然湿地分布不变,在3种相对浓度路径(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)情境下,21世纪末,中国自然湿地CH4排放量与当前水平相比将分别增长32.0%、55.3%和90.8%.中国大陆南方自然湿地CH4排放高于中部和北方,且自西向东呈现上升趋势.CH4高通量排放区域主要集中在长江中下游湿地、东北湿地和珠江沿岸湿地.RCP4.5和RCP8.5情境下全国大部分自然湿地CH4排放通量增加,而RCP2.6情境下21世纪中后期CH4排放上升趋势得到控制并开始下降,到世纪末部分地区(尤其是青藏高原地区)CH4排放通量与当前水平相比有所降低.Based on a new process-based model,TRIPLEX-GHG,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed,the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%,55.3% and 90.8% by the end of21 st century under three representative concentration pathways（ RCPs） scenarios, RCP2. 6,RCP4.5 and RCP8. 5,respectively,compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides,there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially,the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future,most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However,under RCP2.6 scenario,the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4emissions（ especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau） begin to decrease in the late 21 st century.

关 键 词：自然湿地生态系统 CH4 气候变化 TRIPLEX-GHG 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]