树轮记录的过去359 a阿勒泰地区初夏气温变化  

Early Summer Temperature Change in Altay over the Past 359 Years Recorded by Tree Rings

作　　者：崔宇[1] 胡列群 袁玉江[3] 李帅[1] 侯小刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气候中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]乌鲁木齐气象卫星地面站,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所中国气象局树木年轮理化研究重点开放实验室新疆树木年轮生态实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2015年第5期22-28,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41275120);自治区科技援疆项目(2013911104)共同资助

摘　　要：利用采集自阿尔泰山南坡森林上限3个采样点的西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica Ledeb.)树芯样本,研制其树轮宽度年表。与区域内6个气象站点观测数据的相关分析结果表明,标准化宽度年表与6月平均气温相关较好,最高相关系数达0.675(p<0.0001)。使用逐步回归分析方法,建立温度的重建方程,调整自由度后的方差解释量为45.6%(1962—2012年)。过去359 a来,阿勒泰地区平均气温变化存在7个偏暖阶段和6个偏冷阶段。并存在5个温暖年、54个偏暖年、252个正常年、37个偏冷年、以及11个寒冷年。6月平均温度的最高值出现在1830年(22.35℃),最低温度出现在1985年(17.87℃)。功率谱分析显示该重建序列存在30.0 a、7.4 a的显著准周期(p<0.05)和6.4 a的较显著准周期(p<0.10)。In this paper,three tree-ring width chronologies were developed. Tree ring samples from the upper tree line of Altay Mountains were collected in 2012. It was found that the standardized tree-ring width chronologies have the best relevance to the mean temperature of June in six weather stations, and the correlation coefficient is 0.675. With stepwise regression analysis, we established reconstruction temperature equation. The reconstruction explains 45.6% of the variation in the observed mean temperature from 1962 to 2012. Warm periods occurred during 1667-1681, 1714-1728, 1747-1779, 1787-1800, 1862-1887, 1935~1968, and 2000-2012, while relatively cold periods were in 1682-1713, 1729-1746, 1780-1786, 1801-1861, 1888-1934, and 1969-1999, Including 5 warm year, 54 partial warm years, 252 normal years, 11 cold year, 37 partial cool years. The extreme warm year occurred in 1830 （22.35 ℃）, the extreme cold one occurred in 1985（17.87℃）;Power spectral analysis demonstrated the existence of significant 30.0,7.4, and 6.4 year cycles of variability.

关 键 词：阿勒泰地区 西伯利亚落叶松 树木年轮 气候响应 气温重建 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]