北京市紫外辐射对人体健康的影响及其统计预报模型  

Impact of ultraviolet radiation on human body and its statistical forecasting model in Beijing City

作　　者：刘慧[1] 胡波[2] 王式功[1,3] 尚可政[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,气象环境与人体健康研究中心,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室,北京100191 [3]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,成都610225

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期665-670,675,共7页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)专项项目(GYHY201106034);国家人口与健康科学数据共享平台“气象环境与健康”专题服务建设项目和国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAJ18B08)

摘　　要：利用2005-2011年中国科学院大气物理研究所铁塔分部的辐射观测资料和北京3所三级甲等医院2008-2011年皮肤病及眼部疾病急诊人数资料,对紫外辐射和相关疾病进行分析.选取与紫外辐射相关系数通过α=0.05显著性检验的气象要素作为预报因子,利用逐步回归方法分月建立紫外辐射强度预报方程.结果表明:紫外辐射与皮肤病的相关系数为0.367,与眼部疾病的相关系数为0.265,均通过α=0.001的显著性检验.不同月份紫外辐射的日变化规律不同,对人体产生伤害的时间段有所差异;紫外辐射强度与总云量、低云量、能见度、风向、风速、气压、相对湿度、气温等有关,其中与总云量、低云量、能见度的相关性最显著;1-11月预报方程历史回代检验的平均评分为82.8,试预报的平均评分为82.7;预报模型的拟合能力和推广能力较好,为实际业务提供了指导意义.The relationship between the UV radiation and related diseases was discussed by using the observed radiation data from the Tower Division of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,from2005 to 2011 and the skin and eye emergency numbers data of three hospitals in Beijing from 2008 to 2011.Meteorological factors which passed the α=0.05 significance test were selected and the stepwise regression method was used to establish the monthly UV radiation intensity prediction equation.The results indicated that the correlation coefficient of UV radiation and the number of eye patients was 0.367 and the correlation coefficient of UV radiation and the number of skin patients was 0.265,which passed α=0.001 significance test;UV radiation exhibited different diurnal variations and different harm periods in different months;UV radiation was related to the total cloud cover,low cloud cover,wind direction,wind speed,air pressure,air temperature,visibility,relative humidity and,especially,the total cloud cover,the low cloud cover and the visibility;the score of history back substitution was 82.8 and that of test forecast was 82.7.It has been proved that the forecasting model has a good fitting ability and outreach capacity,and can provides a guidance for the practice.

关 键 词：紫外辐射 人体健康 气象因子 预报模型 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]