经济危机以后CPI与PPI动态传导机制转变的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Change of Dynamic Transmission Mechanism between CPI and PPI

作　　者：王章名 王成璋[1] 张谦[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都600031

出　　处：《软科学》2015年第11期35-38,60,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171169)

摘　　要：运用DCC模型和非线性Granger因果检验,对CPI和PPI的动态传导机制进行研究。结果发现:(1)2008年前后两者的相关关系存在着明显差异,分段检验证实两者的传导关系的确发生了转变;(2)经济危机后政府主导的投资计划可能导致了价格传导机制的显著变化,以往研究结论不一致主要源于选取区间不同,根本原因在于宏观经济环境变化所导致的价格传导方向的转变;(3)目前存在着通缩的威胁,这是对前期通胀的调整,经济将会在未来一段时间处于"低物价、低增长"的新常态。This paper analyzes the dynamic transmission mechanism between CPI and PPI by Dynamic Conditional Correlation（ DCC） model and nonlinear Granger causality test. Results show that after 2008 the correlation between them has significantly increased due to government overinvestment; the change of the transmission mechanism implies that the reason of previous academics contradiction is different time-zones choosing. Direction change of the transmission mechanism is due to changes in investment policies which should come into notice.

关 键 词：价格传导机制 DCC模型 非线性Granger因果检验 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学] F064.1