地市经济增长的σ趋同评价分析  

σConvergence Evaluation Analysis of Local Economic Growth of Hunan Province

作　　者：胡斌[1] 游新彩[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉首大学数学与统计学院,湖南吉首416000 [2]吉首大学商学院,湖南吉首416000

出　　处：《吉首大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第5期77-82,共6页Journal of Jishou University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(14B146);吉首大学校级科学研究项目(13JDY042)

摘　　要：近年来,"俱乐部趋同"逐渐成为区域经济增长趋同研究的重点.先根据2003—2013年湖南省及各市州人均GDP、城镇居民可支配收入、城镇化率3个统计指标对15个研究对象进行聚类区域分组,分出3类经济水平带;再采用方差分解方法分别计算了2003—2013年湖南省各地区的总差异、带间差异与带内差异.结果表明,湖南省各地区的人均GDP地区差异在变大,经济增长趋异;城镇居民人均可支配收入的地区差异在变大,收入增长趋异;城镇化率的地区差异先变大后变小,城市化率增长先趋异后趋同.从3个经济带的方差分析结果看,人均GDP、城镇居民可支配收入分析不能实证湖南省经济带内存在显著的"俱乐部趋同"现象,城镇化率分析能说明经济带内存在"俱乐部趋同"现象.In recent years,the Club Convergence is becoming a focus in the study of regional economic growth convergence.In this paper,according to the three statistical indexes of the provincial and regional per capita GDP,the per capita disposable income of urban residents,urbanization rate from 2003 to 2013 in Hunan Province,15 research objects are clustered into regional groups,and three levels of economic belts are obtained.With the variance decomposition method,the general regional differences and the differences within and between different levels in 2003—2013 are calculated.The results show that the regional differences in per capita GDP have increased and the economic growth tends to differ;the region-al differences in per capita disposable income have also grown and the income growth tends to vary;the regional urbanization rate differences firstly increased and then decreased,and the urbanization rate growth divergence shows the tendency of similitude.The results of variance analysis on the three eco-nomic belts show that the per capita GDP and disposable income analysis do not indicate empirically the phenomenon of “club convergence”phenomenon,while the urbanization rate can explain the phenomenon“club convergence”in economic belt.

关 键 词：聚类 方差分析 Σ趋同 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F224