1955—2012年陕西洛川县极端气温变化研究  

Change of Extreme Air Temperature in Luochuan County,Shaanxi from 1955 to 2012

作　　者：杨晓玉[1] 赵景波[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062 [2]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡712100

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2015年第6期1122-1132,共11页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室项目(13JS012);国家自然科学基金项目(40672108)

摘　　要：根据洛川县1955—2012年的日气温资料,采用线性趋势法、距平及累积距平法、Morlet复数小波、主成分分析和Mann-Kendall检验法,对世界气象组织（WMO）发布的10种极端气温指数进行计算,分析洛川县各极端气温指数随时间的变化趋势、变化周期、突变年份及各指数之间的相关性。结果表明：①年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、夏日、热夜、暖夜、暖日6个指数均呈上升趋势,而冰日、霜日、冷夜、冷日4个指数呈下降趋势。②年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温以及变率较大的冷夜、暖夜均具有29-30 a的主周期,反映了洛川地区极端天气变化的周期规律。③主成分分析结果表明,第一主成分占方差贡献率的41.6%,高载荷的指数有暖夜、热夜和霜日,可以认为这3个指数的变化对洛川总体气温变化具有主要作用。④除年极端最低气温外,各指数间都有较好的相关性。在相对指数与绝对指数中,各冷指数、暖指数间均呈正相关,而冷指数与暖指数之间则呈负相关。⑤突变分析结果表明,极值指数突变发生在1994年和1965年,相对指数的突变基本发生在20世纪80年代末到90年代末,绝对指数的突变基本发生在70年代和21世纪初。总体来说,58 a来洛川县的极端最高气温以0.14℃·（10a）^-1的速率增加,同时极端最低气温也以0.19℃·（10a）^-1的速率增加,气温变化符合全球气候变暖的大趋势,研究结果可为洛川地区应对气候变化和防治气象灾害提供理论依据和参考。Based on the daily air temperature data from 1955 to 2012 of Luochuan County,10 kinds of extreme air temperature indices which suggested by WMO were calculated using the linear trend method,anomaly and accumulative anomaly method,Morlet wavelet analysis,principal component analysis and Mann-Kendall test. Meanwhile,the trends in these extreme air temperature indices along with the change of time,cycle,mutations and the correlation between each index were analyzed. The results show that：（ 1） Six indices including the maximum air temperature,the minimum air temperature,summer day,hot night,warm night,warm day are on the rising,while the four indices including ice day,frost day,cold night,cold day are on the decline. （2） The extreme maximum air temperature,extreme minimum air temperature,cold night and warm night whose variable ratio are larger has about29-30 a main cycle,reflecting the regular change with cycles of extreme weather in Luochuan area.（ 3 ）The results of principal component analysis showed that the first principal component accounts for 41. 6% of the variance contribution rate,high load indices including warm night,hot night and frost days that can be thought has a significant impact on temperature change of Luochuan. （4） Except the annual extreme minimum temperature,there were significant correlations between each index. Among the relative index and absolute index,the indices of the cold or warm were positively correlated and there is a negative correlation between the cold and warm index. （5） The results of mutation analysis showed that the mutations of extreme value index occurred in 1994 and 1965,while the mutations of relative index mainly occurred in the late 1980 s to 1990 s and the mutations of absolute index occurred in 1970 s and the early 2000 s. In general,the extreme maximum temperature and the extreme minimum temperature of Luochuan in recent 58 years have increased with a rate of 0. 14 ℃ ·（10a）^-1and 0. 19 ℃ ·（10a）^-1which coincides with global warming.

关 键 词：极端气温 变化趋势 主要指数 突变 陕西洛川县 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]