水库调洪过程中特征变量对初始扰动的非线性响应研究  

Study on nonlinear responses of characteristic variables to small initial disturbances in reservoir flood routing

作　　者：刘招[1] 席秋义[2] 王青[1] 陶望雄 

机构地区：[1]长安大学水与发展研究院,西安710054 [2]陕西电力科学研究院,西安710048

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第11期32-39,共8页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(No.2015JM5256);中央高校基本科研业务专项(No.310850151100);国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190093);国家自然科学基金项目(51009008)

摘　　要：本文对水库调洪系统的非线性响应特性进行分析,旨在探索水库防洪调度过程中的内在随机性问题,为进一步分析水库调洪过程的不确定性及风险问题奠定基础。研究采用系统动力学和模拟方法,分析在不同类型调洪规则下水库调洪数学模型特征变量所具有的非线性动力学特征。结果表明:在调洪规则的畅泄段,调洪过程中系统对施加的初始微小扰动不敏感,水库调洪系统具有稳定的吸引点;而在控泄段分段式的调洪规则下,初始的微小扰动则可能被放大,表现为后续状态变量的较大差异。确定性调洪数学模型在微小初值扰动下的这一非线性响应行为,关系到水库防洪风险和效益问题,值得深入研究和讨论。Nonlinear behaviors in flood routing of a reservoir system have been analyzed to study the intrinsic stochasticity of the system, aiming to form a basis of uncertainty and risk analysis for reservoir flood control systems. Applying the system dynamics theory and system simulation method, we examined the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of a deterministic mathematic model for reservoir flood routing of water level and outflow under the conditions of free overflow and regulated outflow. The results show that the state variables were not sensitive to the initial disturbance in the stage of free overflow while quite sensitive in the stage of regulated outflow. In the latter case, water level and outflow were evolving in a way of amplified deviations as a response to the initial disturbance of the routing. This phenomenon indicates that nonlinear behaviors in reservoir flood routing could play an important role in system uncertainty and it is a potential risk factor and an underestimated problem. Thus, it should be further studied owing to its importance associated with the interests and risk in reservoir flood control.

关 键 词：水库调洪演算 非线性 随机模拟 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]