气候变暖背景下甘肃省气象灾害发生趋势  

Occurrence Trend of Meteorological Disasters in Gansu under Background of Climate Warming

作　　者：杨蓉蓉[1] 董婕[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2015年第11期77-82,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

摘　　要：利用甘肃省1960～2013年逐日平均气温、最高和最低气温以及降水资料，采用一元线性趋势、5年滑动平均、Mann—Kendall检验、空间差值等方法，从强度和频率2个方面对比分析了该地区在气候变暖前（1960—1994年）和气候变暖后（1995—2013年）这2个阶段高温、低温、暴雨和旱涝发生频率和强度的变化特征。结果表明：甘肃省在1995年发生气温突变，突变后气温不断升高；突变前后，甘肃省大部分地区高温频率和强度增大，高温强度变化南北格局明显，中南部强度最大；整个甘肃省（除马鬃山外）低温频率和强度都在减小，中部减小幅度高于南部，北部减幅最少；甘肃省东部和西部地区暴雨频次有所增加，陇南有所下降；甘肃省旱涝存在一定的周期性，周期大约为6～7年，且不同等级旱涝灾害增减幅度不同。On the basis of the data of daily mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Gansu province from 1960 to 2013, through using the methods of linear trend, five-year moving average, Mann-Kendall test and spatial interpolation method, the author comparatively analyzed the change characteristics of occurrence frequency and intensity of high temperature, low temperature, rainstorm, drought and flood in this province before climate warming （1960 ~ 1994） and after climate warming（ 1995-2013）. The results showed that：the daily mean temperature in Gansu appeared a mutation in 1995, and it rose constantly after the mutation ; around the mutation, the intensity and frequency of high temperature increased in most regions of Gansu, the intensity of high temperature presented obviously different changes between the north and the south, and it was the grea- test in the south-central ; both the intensity and the frequency of low temperature decreased in the whole Gansu （ except for Mazong- Mountain）, the decreasing amplitudein the central was higher than that in the south, and the decreasing amplitude in the north was the smallest; the rainstorm frequency increased to some extent in eastern and western Gansu, while it decreased somewhat in south- ern Gansu ; the occurrence of drought and flood in Gansu province revealed a certain periodicity, the period was about 6 ~ 7 years, and the increasing or decreasing amplitudeof different grades of drought and flood disasters was different.

关 键 词：甘肃省 气候变暖 气象灾害 频率 强度 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]