辽宁省沿海地区极值风速概率分布特征  

Characteristic of Probability Distribution of Extreme Wind Speeds in Coast Area of Liaoning Province

作　　者：方晓 张运福[2] 房一禾[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象信息中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]辽宁省气象服务中心 [3]沈阳区域气候中心

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2015年第22期256-257,259,共3页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业科研专项"环渤海区域强风灾害气候特征及影响评估技术研究"(GYHY201306034)

摘　　要：利用辽宁省沿海地区16个国家级气象站1980—2014年的最大风速序列资料,基于经典极值理论的GEV概率分布模型,对各站点的极值风速分布模型参数进行了估算,计算15、30、50、100年等不同重现期下的极值风速值,并用Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验法进行了优度拟合检验,结果表明:辽宁省沿海地区极值风速符合GEV分布。To study the characteristic of probability distribution of extreme wind speeds in the coast area of Liaoning Province,the generalized extreme value distribution （GEV）was used on the basis of the series of annual maximum wind speeds at 16 national weather stations from 1980 to 2014. The parameters of GEV model were estimated, and the return periods （ 15 years, 30 years, 50 years, 100 yebrs） of annual maximum wind speeds were calculatod.The goodness tests by Kolmogorov-Smirnov method showed that GEV was suitable for the probability distribution of extreme wind speeds in the coast of Liaoning Province.

关 键 词：极值风速 概率模型 参数估计 优度拟合检验 辽宁省 沿海地区 

分 类 号：P425.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]