基于2020年中国人均GDP情境的国际环境状况对比研究  

Comparative Study of the International Environmental Conditions Based on the Situation of China's GDP per Capita in 2020

作　　者：吴舜泽[1] 秦昌波[1] 王倩[1] 姜文锦[1] 李新[1] 万军[1] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2015年第5期31-42,共12页Environmental Protection Science

摘　　要：以2020年中国人均GDP1.2万美元相对应的发达国家历史同期状况来看，我国“十三五”时期经济增速、经济增量、二产占比、二产增加值、重工业产量等均高于发达国家当年同期水平，且城镇化增速快、城市开发强度高、消费型污染多元化，煤炭占比和煤炭消费强度高，环境质量改善任务比发达国家更加艰巨。与发达国家历史同期相比，我国当前环境质量改善进度约滞后于经济发展进度20年左右。2020年环境质量要达到发达国家历史同期水平，颗粒物浓度需下降60%~70%，劣V类水体需全部消除，这一改善幅度超过五年可达范围。根据发达国家环境治理一般历程与典型案例分析，我国2020年环境质量难以达标，预期2030年左右环境质量可接近达标水平。China＇s GDP per capita will reach to 12 thousand dollars till 2020. Compared with the developed countries during the corresponding historical period, the economic growth, economic increment, proportion and value added of the secondary industry, heavy industry output in China during the thirteenth five-year period will be higher than those of the developed countries. Furthermore, the task of environmental quality improvement will be more difficult in China than in the developed countries due to the rapid growth of urbanization, high intensity of urban development, diversification of consumption-based pollution, higher proportion and consumption intense of coal, etc.. Compared to the developed countries during the same historical period, the current progress of environmental quality improvement in China lags behind the economic development for about 20 years. In the year of 2020, level of the environmental quality in China should catch up that of the developed countries during the same historical period, with decrease of the content of PM by 60% ~70% and complete elimination of water body of inferior level V, which cannot be fulfilled within five years. According to the general process of environmental management in the developed countries and typical case analysis, the environmental quality in China is hard to reach the set standard in 2020 but envisaged to get close around the year of 2030.

关 键 词：十三五 国际对比 经济社会 环境质量 环境目标 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]