春节假期对江苏电网负荷及电量影响研究  

Affection study on load and electricity consumption of Jiangsu power grid during Spring Festival

作　　者：杨俊义 周琪[2] 赵宏大 谈健 

机构地区：[1]江苏省电力公司电力经济技术研究院,南京210008 [2]江苏省电力公司,南京210024

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2015年第6期19-22,共4页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：江苏电网春节期间的负荷特性和日电量曲线较平时有较大差异,准确而细致的分析以及预测工作对保障春节期间的电力供应具有十分重要的意义。通过对2008—2015年春节负荷和电量数据进行分析得出：最大负荷和日电量的最小值一般出现在正月初二,春节假期的影响天数约为24～35天。对负荷和电量分春节前和春节后2段分别进行建模,并且对建立的模型进行了误差分析,结果显示,2008—2014年春节期间共41天的累计用电量误差不超过4%。2015年,由于经济形势下行压力较大,导致春节期间企业开工不足,预测误差达到了5.7%。总体而言,该模型为春节期间的负荷和电量预测提供了参考。The load characteristic and daily electricity con- sumption curve of Jiangsu power grid is quite different from usual during the Spring Festival. Accurate and detailed analysis and fore- casting is very important for the security of supply of electricity dur- ing the Spring Festival. Through analyzing the load and consumption data of the Spring Festival from 2008 to 2015, it shows that the mini- mum value of the maximum load and daily consumption data appears in the first two days of the Chinese New Year holiday, and the impact last ＇about 24 to 35 days. The model of the load and consumption data are made before and after Chinese New Year holiday. Error analysis shows that the error of 41 days of cumulative electricity consumption are less that 4% from 2008 to 2014. In 2015, due to the economic sit- uation downward pressure, lead to many enterprises underemploy- ment during the Spring Festival. The prediction error is up to 5.7%. As a result, the model provides a good reference for the forecasting of load and consumption data during Spring Festival.

关 键 词：春节假期 负荷预测 电量预测 江苏电网 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]