成本最优与减排约束下中国能源结构演化路径  

The cost-effective path of energy mix evolution for China under the emissions budgets

作　　者：石莹[1,2] 朱永彬[1] 王铮[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2015年第10期26-37,共12页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家基础研究(973计划)资助项目(2012CB955804);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助项目(XDA05150500);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41201594)

摘　　要：基于经济平稳增长与能源成本最优,本文构建了以经济动力学模型与能源成本最优控制的耦合建模,对比分析了有无碳排放目标的中国能源成本和能源技术发展的演化趋势.模型模拟的结果发现:1)若单纯从经济利益上考虑,按成本最优的能源结构发展,煤炭仍将是中国最主要的能源供给方式.2)经济平稳增长的路线下,排放总量约束势将带来碳高峰值的显著下降,但对碳高峰出现的时间影响有限.3)若要实现碳减排,煤炭占比显著下降;而天然气、石油在非电力能源中的占比增加;在电力能源中占比基本保持不变.4)考虑成本与减排目标,水电将成为我国发展最快的电力能源.5)化石能源价格的增长以及新能源发电技术的学习效应将刺激新能源发电技术的发展,并逐渐取代火力发电.6)边际减排成本随着减排力度的增加而增加.若要实现高减排目标,在不考虑CCS技术的情况下,中国的边际减排成本很高.因此,中国以煤为主的能源资源特点也决定了未来有限的减排空间.This paper introduces the indices of herding behavior and market volatility based on multifractal spectrum. Employing the nonlinear Granger causality test proposed by Diks and Panchenko and the cross-cor- relation coefficient proposed by Zebende, we investigate the dynamic li nkages between herding behavior and market volatility. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between herding behavior and market vol- atility in the Shenzhen stock market is nonlinear, rather than the simple linear linkage. The correlations and causality relationships between herding behavior and market volatility are largely different between before and after the recent financial crisis. Specifically, before the reform of the shareholders in 2005, herding behavior and market volatility could not affect each other. During the period of 2005 -2007, herding behavior had positive effects on market volatility. However, after 2008, herding behavior had negative effects on market volatility, meanwhile market volatility also had negative effects on herding behavior. This new finding indicates that herding behavior does not always result in ＂positive feedback＂ effects as claimed in conventional studies and ＂negative feedback＂ effects are present sometimes.

关 键 词：能源模型 能源结构 碳排放 气候政策 最优控制 

分 类 号：F713.36[经济管理—产业经济]