基于预售和不确定需求的零售商退货策略研究  

A Research on Retailer's Return Policy Based on Advance Selling and Uncertain Demand

作　　者：张福利 郑迪 

机构地区：[1]南京审计学院工商管理学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《南京审计学院学报》2015年第6期75-84,共10页journal of nanjing audit university

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金资助项目(12YJA630183);江苏省"青蓝工程"资助项目;江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目

摘　　要：基于新产品的销售分为两期(第一期为预售期,第二期为现货销售期)以及消费者对预售产品具有不确定估价这一假设,研究不确定需求条件下零售商的退货策略,着重关注在不接受预售产品退货策略和接受预售产品退货策略中,哪一种退货策略能够成为零售商的最优退货策略,结果显示:当消费者对预售产品价格高估的可能性较小时,不接受预售产品退货策略与接受预售产品退货策略等效,两者均为零售商的最优退货策略;当消费者对预售产品价格高估价的可能性较大时,不接受预售产品退货策略为零售商的最优退货策略。Based on the assumptions that the sales of new product are divided into two periods（ the first period is the advance selling period,the second period is selling season period or spot selling period） and that the consumers have uncertain evaluation on product,this paper makes a research on the retailer＇s return policy under the condition of uncertain demand and focuses on which returns policy can become the retailer＇s optimal returns policy between no returns policy and providing returns policy for the pre-sale products. The results show that if the consumer is less likely to overestimate the product in the advance selling period,no returns policy and providing returns policy are equivalent,and both are the retailer＇s optimal returns policy. Otherwise,no returns policy is the retailer＇s optimal returns policy.

关 键 词：供应链管理 产业组织理论 零售商 不确定估价 退货策略 营销模式 无缺陷退货 预售 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]