中国房地产上市公司治理状况预测  

The Governance Situation Prediction of the Listing Chinese Real Estate Corporation

作　　者：张红[1] 高帅[1] 张洋[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084 [2]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《软科学》2015年第12期1-4,13,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71373143)

摘　　要：在全面总结影响公司治理水平的股权结构、董事会治理、高管激励因素的基础上，选取12个相应指标作为公司治理代理变量，以2010～2012年我国房地产上市公司相关数据为样本，基于因子分析法客观赋权的特点构建了2010～2012年中国房地产上市公司治理综合排名指标Z；在此基础上，采用人工神经网络对公司治理状况进行分组仿真预测。研究发现，公司治理指标具有很强“稳健性”，即公司治理体系一旦建立，治理好的公司将一直趋好。Combined with the characteristics of the corporate governance mechanism, this paper is based on the comprehen- sive summary of ownership structure, the board governance, executive incentive factors, selected 12 governance indicators as a proxy, chose the listing Chinese real estate corporation relevant data as example, using factor analysis method to con- struct from 2010 to 2012 objective weighting Comprehensive ranking Z indicator of the listing Chinese real estate corpora- tion. On this basis, the simulation to predict the group corporate governance was conducted by artificial neural network. Re- sult showed that the index of corporate governance has very strong ＂Stability＂. Namely, good governance has been getting better and better.

关 键 词：因子分析法 人工神经网络 Z综合指标 稳健性 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学]