湖北省工业碳排放与经济发展关系的实证研究  

Practical Research of Industrial Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Hubei Province

作　　者：杭维[1] 周培疆[1] 聂莲莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,生物质资源化学与环境生物技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2015年第10期190-195,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：湖北省环保厅公益基金项目(2110307)

摘　　要：利用2000-2012年期间省域工业碳排放和经济增长的数据,研究了湖北省工业碳排放和经济增长之间的关系,探索了湖北省工业产值和工业碳排放的EKC曲线类型,同时还基于Tapio脱钩模型对湖北省2000-2012年期间工业碳排放与经济增长进行了脱钩分析。结果显示：（1）2000-2012年期间湖北省工业碳排放和经济增长始终为逐渐增大的趋势,工业碳排放在2012年达到了32 433.4万t;而工业碳排放强度则呈现出逐渐下降的趋势,在2012降到3.33 t/万元;（2）湖北省工业碳排放和经济增长存在＂N＂型关系,并不是单纯的倒＂U＂型关系;（3）2001-2012年期间湖北省工业碳排放与经济发展之间的脱钩系数波动较大,但最常出现的状态为弱脱钩状态,脱钩系数主要在0-0.8之间,并且主要呈现为高水平的相对低碳发展趋势。Based on the actuality of Hubei Province,this paper describes the present situation and change trends of the industrial carbon emission in Hubei Province in details by provincial statistical data 2000-2012. The EKC curve of industrial output and carbon emission were discussed. Based on Tapio decoupling elasticity factor,the relationship between industrial carbon emission and economic growth in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020 was studied. The results show that the industrial carbon emission and economic growth in Hubei Province appeared a yearly increasing trend and the industrial carbon emission intensity appeared a trend of reducing slowly year by year in 2000-2012. The industrial carbon emission reached324 million tons in 2012 and the industrial carbon emission intensity dropped to 3.33 ton/10 thousand yuan. There is a N type of relationship between industrial carbon emission and economic growth,and it is not a simple and inverted U type. The decoupling of industrial carbon emission and economic growth in Hubei Province was not stable from 2001 to 2012,but always between 0 and 0.8,the most common situation in Hubei Province was weak decoupling and presented a relative low carbon development trend of high level.

关 键 词：工业碳排放 经济发展 EKC曲线 脱钩 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]