金沙江流域降水和径流时空演变的非一致性分析  

Inconsistency Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Precipitation and Runoff in Jinshajiang River Basin

作　　者：张海荣[1,2] 周建中[1,2] 曾小凡[1,2] 叶磊[1,2] 孟长青[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学水电与数字化工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]数字流域科学与技术湖北省重点实验室,华中科技大学,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水文》2015年第6期90-96,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51239004);国家自然科学基金(51309105);华中科技大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助(2014QN233)

摘　　要：基于金沙江流域1966～2010年降水和径流资料．采用单变量Mann—Kendall（MK）趋势分析法、突变检验法和多变量MK法对金沙江流域近几十年来的降水和径流变化进行了非一致性分析。结果表明：金沙江流域年降水和年径流整体呈上升趋势，特别是从20世纪90年代之后增大趋势较为明显。其中金沙江流域中游以上区域的年降水通过显著性检验，上升趋势较为明显，而各个水文站点的年径流均未通过显著性检验，仅存在微弱的上升趋势。中游攀枝花站集水区域的面平均年降水趋势存在突变点，在1997年之后显著增加．而其年径流则不存在突变点，其他站点面平均年降水和年径流趋势都不存在突变。此外，中游龙街站集水区域的面平均年降水和年径流通过多变量MK显著性检验，表明龙街站降水和径流联合变量呈显著增加趋势。According to the annual precipitation and runoff data from 1966 to 2010, this paper analyzed the inconsistency of precipitation and runoff in the Jinshajiang River Basin by using univariate Mann-Kendall test and multivariate Mann-Kendall test. The results show that there＇s an increasing trend in the annual precipitation and runoff in the Jinshajiang River Basin, especially from the 1990s. The precipitation in the middle reaches of the Jinshajiang River Basin shows an obvious upward tendency by passing the MK significance test. The mutation point appears in the precipitation at the Panzhihua Station, which results in an obvious increase after 1997. There＇s not any other mutation points in both precipitation and runoff at the other stations. In addition, by passing the muhivariate MK significance test, the joint variables of the Longjie Station＇s precipitation and runoff show a significant increase, while the other stations fail the test.

关 键 词：金沙江流域 多变量 非一致性分析 MK检验 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]