基于帕累托最优的海上个人可接受风险标准研究  

Marine Traffic System Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria Research Based on the Pareto Optimality Theory

作　　者：曹亮[1] 刘正江[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2015年第12期19-22,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51309041);国家863计划子课题(2009AA045003);中央高校基本科研业务费(2015YB03;3132014201)

摘　　要：通过对个人风险可接受标准的介绍和对海上交通系统风险特点的分析,构建了海上交通系统个人风险可接受标准的概念。在比较相关模型的基础上,利用帕累托最优理论,基于有利于各方参与者、海上交通安全现状建立了分布模型,根据ALARP原则,计算出海上个人风险可接受标准的上下阈值,为定量分析海上交通系统风险提供了基础。Through introducing the individual risk acceptance criteria and the risk characteristics of the marine traffic system,the concept of individual risk acceptance criteria of marine traffic system is built. After comparing the relevant models,the distribution model is set up by using the theory of Pareto optimality and based on the principle beneficial to all participants and marine traffic safety status,also according to ALARP,the upper and lower threshold of the individual risk acceptance criteria is calculated,providing the basis of quantitative risk analysis for the maritime traffic system.

关 键 词：海上交通 个人可接受风险 帕累托最优 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]