基于Ordered Probit模型的老年人出行链性质研究  

Analysis of Trip Chaining Attributes for the Older People With Ordered Probit Model

作　　者：邹庆超[1] 张宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《综合运输》2015年第12期57-62,共6页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：针对老年人个体出行行为——出行链性质的研究是制定老龄化社会出行需求管理政策的依据。本文对北京市60岁以上部分老年人的出行链进行访谈调查,运用描述性分析和Ordered Probit模型,分析老年人出行链性质,通过研究家庭结构、伤残状况、社会经济属性等因素对老年人出行链性质的影响,表明老年人的出行以居家生活购物与养老休闲娱乐为主,且家庭收入、家庭成员组成与结构以及伤残情况对出行链复杂性有着决定性影响。制定公交普遍服务政策满足老年人的基本出行,要有利于老年人的购物与休闲娱乐需要。The research on the travel behavior of older people-the trip chaining attributes is the basis of the travel demand management policy for an aging society. This paper conducts a survey of the older people over 60 in Beijing and then examines the trip chaining attributes among the older people through descriptive analysis and Ordered Probit model. By studying the effect of household structure, levels of disability and socio-economic attributes on the trip chaining complexity of older people, we suggest that the trip purposes of older people are mainly shopping and leisure entertainment, and income, household structure and levels of disability have a decisive influence on trip chaining complexity. Making universal bus service policy to satisfy the basic travel needs of older people, should focus on their shopping and leisure entertainment needs.

关 键 词：城市交通 出行链性质 OrderedProbit模型 老年人 出行链 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]