基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传播模型研究  

The internet public opinion propagation model via uncertain differential equation

作　　者：苏创[1] 彭锦[2] 李圣国[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学数理学院,上海200234 [2]黄冈师范学院数理学院,黄冈438000

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第12期3201-3209,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(13YJA630065)

摘　　要：不确定微分方程是由典范过程驱动的一类微分方程,是一种描述不确定过程或不确定动态系统的新型数学工具.本文在研究网络舆情传播过程和传播类型的基础上,充分考虑网络舆情传播过程中存在的一些不确定因素,根据网络舆情传播的不同阶段提出相应的基于不确定微分方程的网络舆情传播模型.最后结合甘肃兰州自来水苯含量超标事件给出了衰退阶段模型的数值计算实例,预测结果与实际传播情况基本吻合.Uncertain differential equation is a type of differential equation driven by canonical process,is a new mathematical tool for describing uncertain process or uncertain dynamical system.Based on the research of the propagation process and propagation types of internet public opinion,and fully considering some uncertain factors that exist in the process of the internet public opinion propagation,we put forward the models of internet public opinion propagation which are based on uncertain differential equation according to the different stages of internet public opinion propagation.Finally,we provide numerical examples of recession phase model which are combining with the event of benzene exceed bid of water supply from Lanzhou,Gansu,and the predicted results basically tally with the actual propagation facts.

关 键 词：网络舆情 不确定动态系统 不确定过程 不确定微分方程 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]