产业结构偏离对制造业可持续发展影响的实证分析——以江苏制造业优势产业为例  

The Influence of Industry Structure Deviation on the Sustainable Development of Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Study

作　　者：孙君[1] 董慧[1] 郇红艳[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]无锡商业职业技术学院工商管理学院,江苏无锡214153 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016 [3]阜阳师范学院经济与商业学院,安徽阜阳236041

出　　处：《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2015年第6期1-6,共6页Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce

基　　金：江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目(2013SJB6300090);江苏省社会科学基金项目(11EYD045);安徽省教育厅人文社科重点研究基地重点项目(SK2013A134);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJA880084);无锡商业职技术学院教科研课题(SYKJ14B24)

摘　　要：基于2004—2013年的江苏规模以上制造业面板数据,分析了十年间江苏制造业优势产业产值结构与用工结构变化情况;运用结构偏离度模型分析江苏制造业优势产业结构偏离方向、程度和速度;借助灰色关联模型实现制造业优势产业结构偏离度对制造业产值、用工弹性、劳动生产率增长率、产值增长率和用工增长率五个具有可持续发展指征的系统特征的关联度、关联序的实证分析。结果表明:十年间江苏制造业优势产业结构与用工结构总体协凋;优势产业结构偏离度对用工弹性影响最大,其次是劳动生产率增长率和产值增长率,对制造业产值影响不明显。Based on 2004--2013 panel data of large-scale manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province, this paper first analyzes the changes of competitive industries＇ production value structure and employment structure. It then, using structural deviation degree model, analyzes those industries＇ direction, degree and speed of structural deviation. Using grey correlation model, it does an empirical analysis of the impact of competitive manufacturing industry＇s structure deviation degree on the five correlation-degree-and-order indicators indicating sustainable development, which are output value, employment elasticity, growth rate of labor productivity, growth rate of output value and growth rate of employment. The results of the study show that the advantageous industries＇ structure has been coordinated with the employment structure in the past ten years; that the comoetitive industries＇ structure deviation degree presents the greatest influence on employmentelasticity but labor productivity growth rate and industry growth rate have no obvious effect on the manufacturing output value.

关 键 词：结构偏离度 可持续发展 灰色关联模型 

分 类 号：F269.275.3[经济管理—国民经济]