校准条件下的数值模拟不确定度量化方法  

Uncertainty Quantification of Numerical Simulations Subjected to Calibration

作　　者：马智博[1] 殷建伟[1] 李海杰 刘全[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京应用物理与计算数学研究所,北京100088 [2]长沙机电产品研究开发中心,湖南长沙410100

出　　处：《计算物理》2015年第5期514-522,共9页Chinese Journal of Computational Physics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11371066);装备预先研究(51319010207);中国工程物理研究院科学技术发展基金(2012B0102010;2013A0101004)资助项目

摘　　要：当存在众多不确定输入因素时,不确定度的传递分析往往导致对数值模拟不确定度的过高估计.利用校准行为能够消减系统级数值模拟中认知不确定度的客观机制,提出一个综合利用已有系统级试验对比信息和新增建模与模拟传递信息的不确定度量化方法,结合一个虚拟试验的例子对该方法进行展示和验证.Propagation analysis often overrate uncertainty of numerical simulation, especially as many uncertain inputs exist. Taking advantage of the reality that calibration can reduce epistemic uncertainty of system？level numerical simulation, a method for uncertainty quantification is offered synthetically using comparison information based on available test data and additional propagation information of modeling and simulation. An example with virtual test is displayed in which the method is demonstrated and validated.

关 键 词：数值模拟 不确定度量化 校准 可靠性认证 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]