人民币加入SDR的国际影响——基于情景假设的量化测算  

The International Influence of RMB Joining the SDR——A Measurement Based on Scenario Analysis

作　　者：苏治[1,2] 胡迪[1] 方彤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [2]中国人民大学国际货币研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2015年第12期5-19,共15页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"货币总量转向信用总量:全球虚拟经济与实体经济背离机理与宏观政策应对"(批准号71473279);国家自然科学基金青年项目"跨期条件下资产定价主流偏差时变机理"(批准号71101157);新世纪优秀人才支持计划"从货币总量到信用总量:一个新的全球经济分析与宏观政策调控的框架"(批准号NCET-13-1055)

摘　　要：2015年是人民币入选SDR货币篮子的重要窗口期,社会各界都密切关注人民币能否通过IMF审核加入SDR。纳入人民币的SDR货币篮子将产生怎样的变化,是否会对SDR债务国有所冲击?已有研究缺乏对上述问题的深入讨论。本文采用情景分析模型,在不同假设条件下量化测算不同时点人民币加入SDR货币篮子对SDR组成权重、价值稳定性和货币单位利率的冲击影响。研究发现:如果人民币能尽快加入货币篮子,对SDR美元价格的影响很小;实行更有弹性的浮动汇率制度能够减少人民币对SDR短期波动性造成的冲击:人民币的加入对SDR短期价值和长期均衡价值都不会产生趋势性冲击:纳入人民币对SDR货币单位利率产生的国际冲击不大,并不会明显增加SDR债务国的负担。The year 2015 is the important window period of RMB joining SDR basket. Whether RMB can join the SDR has become a hot topic within all fields. If RMB succeed in joining SDR, what changes it will bring to SDR and whether it will have an impact on SDR debtors are questions that have not been answered in fully details. The paper studies the impact of RMB joining the SDR quantitatively by using the scenario analysis model. The main conclusions are as follows： the impact on the SDR value in U.S. dollars will be small if RMB could join SDR basket as soon as possible. Also, a more flexible exchange rates regime can weaken the impact of the inclusion of RMB to SDR basket. In addition, the inclusion of RMB would not produce a trend shock on both the short-term and the long-term equilibrium value of SDR basket. Furthermore, the impact to the SDR interest rate by the inclusion of RMB to SDR basket is limited. It would not increase the burden of the debtor countries obviously.

关 键 词：特别提款权 情景分析 国际货币体系 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]