汤浦水库总磷环境容量的计算及不确定性分析  

Calculation of the phosphorus environmental capacity of Tangpu reservoir and the related uncertainty analysis

作　　者：石雯倩 吕军[1] 施练东 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学环境与资源学院资源科学系,杭州310058 [2]浙江省绍兴市汤浦水库管理局,浙江绍兴312364

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2015年第6期321-324,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC17B00)

摘　　要：为定量控制湖库磷污染,基于狄龙模型对汤浦水库水环境容量进行了计算,应用蒙特卡洛方法分析了水库总磷(TP)环境容量的不确定性和模型参数的灵敏度。结果表明,水力冲刷系数是水库TP环境容量计算模型最敏感的输入参数,通过减小年入库水量的统计误差与水位的测量误差可以最大限度地减少计算模型的不确定性;与90%置信度水平下TP环境容量相比,常用的以死库容为设计水文条件计算的TP环境容量,由于不考虑水库水文条件的变化,无法估计水库纳污量的变化。不确定分析方法为水库TP环境容量的计算提供了针对特定时间的水文设计条件,从而为不同水文年执行水环境污染物总量控制提供理论参考。The paper is inclined to introduce our method for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis based on the Dillon model developed by Monte Carlo method.The total phosphorus（TP） environmental capacity is a function of water quantity and ecological criterion.With the spatial and temporal change of the water quantity and ecological conditions,water environment and the TP environment has been changing,too.Therefore,the water conservation capacity calculated by the pure storage volume may not reflect the actual situation of the reservoir.It is for this reason that a statistics analysis method of probability distribution has been introduced to estimate the amount of water input and the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis from the water volume probability distributions,along with the Monte Carlo method.Besides,the Spearman rank correlation coefficient of the input parameters shows that the replenishment coefficient for Dillon model is the most sensitive input parameter for calculating the TP environmental capacity,which can be worked out by the annual reservoir water inflow total volume.Thus,the TP environmental capacity along with the dead storage volume in Tangpu reservoir,can be predicted that the current TP pollution quantity should be reduced by 4.89 t/a,10.24 t/a and 11.15 t/a in the years of 2009,2010 and 2011,respectively.As the concentration of TP given in the water intake is getting lower than the water quality target is expected to be coming up to the national standard in the due period,it means that the TP content rate that should be lowered does not need to be reduced.On the other hand,the TP environmental capacity based on the uncertainty analysis shows that the residual in-situ of the TP loading from year2009 to year 2011 can reflect the fact that the concentration rate of TP in the reservoir is up to the national water quality standard.In comparison with the simulated result from the uncertainty analysis（90%of reliability level）,the analysis result with the actual（or,the dead）storage volume,are cer

关 键 词：环境学 水库环境容量 总磷 蒙特卡洛模拟 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：X11[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X52