海上危化品运输系统安全突变评价  

Safety and catastrophe assessment of maritime dangerous chemical transportation system

作　　者：李建民[1] 刁亚琳 宋绍珍 王倩[1] 关巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2015年第4期6-10,共5页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51409033;21276036)

摘　　要：为弥补以往评价方法中过分依赖权重的不足,研究海上危化品运输系统(Maritime Dangerous Chemical Transportation System,MDCTS)安全状态的突变原因及特点,基于突变理论开展系统安全评价.研究突变理论特点,基于突变级数法构建MDCTS安全评价模型,绘制基于突变级数法的系统安全等级表.运用模型对MDCTS进行安全评价.通过与模糊综合评价法相比较,验证评价模型的客观性和合理性.研究结果表明,基于突变级数法的MDCTS安全评价可降低主观因素的影响,实现对MDCTS安全状态的预测.In order to cover the shortage that there is excessive dependence on weight in existing assessment methods,the catastrophe causes and characteristics of the safety state of Maritime Dangerous Chemical Transportation System（ MDCTS） are studied,and the safety evaluation on the system is carried out based on the catastrophe theory. The characteristics of the catastrophe theory are studied,the model of MDCTS safety evaluation is established based on the catastrophe progression method,and the safety rank based on the catastrophe progression method is obtained. The model is applied to the safety evaluation of MDCTS. The objectivity and rationality of the model are verified by comparison with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The research result shows that the safety evaluation on MDCTS based on the catastrophe progression method can weaken the influence of subjective factors,and realize the prediction of MDCTS safety state.

关 键 词：突变理论 突变级数法 海上危化品运输系统 评价模型 

分 类 号：U695.292[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U698.3[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]