基于系统动力学的山东省电力需求预测  

Pow er demand forecasting in Shandong province with system dynamics

作　　者：于松青[1,2] 侯承昊 孙英涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072 [2]国网山东聊城供电公司,山东聊城252000 [3]国网济南供电公司,山东济南250022

出　　处：《山东大学学报（工学版）》2015年第6期91-98,共8页Journal of Shandong University（Engineering Science）

摘　　要：为增进影响电力需求因素选择的深度和广度,利用系统动力学知识对社会用电需求进行系统分析,并建立了电力需求预测的系统动力学模型,该模型能够反映多方面因素的综合作用。利用历史数据验证了系统动力学模型的准确性,然后利用模型对全社会用电量进行模拟预测,并对节能技术变量和城镇化建设进程变量进行政策分析,给出了相应的政策建议。To enhance the depth and breadth of choice about the influence factors of power demand,a systematic analysis was made to the society power demand based on system dynamics,and the system dynamics model of power demand forecast were established,which reflects the multiple factors. The accuracy of system dynamics model was verified by historical data,and then was used to simulate and predict the power consumption in Shandong Province. Final,the relevant policy was analyzed for saving technology and urbanization process variable,and some policy suggestion was put forward.

关 键 词：电力需求预测 系统动力学 政策分析 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]