城市化发展对吉林省碳排放的影响分析  

Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Carbon Emissions in Jilin Province

作　　者：杨琳[1] 董美娜[1] 周嘉[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室,哈尔滨师范大学,中国哈尔滨150025

出　　处：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2015年第5期8-14,共7页Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅资助项目(12531208);哈尔滨师范大学科技发展预研项目(10xyg-09)

摘　　要：碳排放的增加促进温室效应,影响了生态发展和人类的正常生活,因此减少碳排放越来越受到国际重视,而对于我国建设低碳城市是现阶段城市建设的主要目标.基于吉林省1998—2012年碳排放时间序列数据,利用STIRPAT模型,通过主成分分析法分析人口总量,城市化率,能源强度,人均可支配收入,工业增产值对碳排放的影响.结果表明,人口总数对碳排放的促进作用最强,其次是城镇可支配收入,能源强度是唯一对碳排放起抑制作用的影响因素,但是相对于人口的促进作用仍然很弱,所以总体碳排放仍然呈不断增加的趋势.进一步分析得出城市化率与碳排放之间在现阶段还未出现环境库兹尼茨曲线关系,说明了碳排放量仍然还会持续增加.The increasing carbon emissions speed up the greenhouse effect,and affects the ecological development and the normal life of human. Therefore,carbon emissions reduction draws increasing attention from all the world,and the construction of low carbon city is one of the main targets of urban construction in China at the present stage. In this paper,based on carbon emission time series data of Jilin province from 1998 to 2012,using the STIRPAT model and the principal component analysis（ PCA） method,the influence of total population,urbanization rate,energy intensity,per capita disposable income,industrial added value on carbon emissions. The results show that the influence of total population on carbon emissions is the strongest,followed by the urban disposable income,while energy intensity is the only factor that inhabits carbon emissions although still very weak compared with the population effect. Therefore the overall carbon emissions are still increasing. Further analysis between urbanization rate and carbon emissions at this stage has not yet appeared environmental Kuznets curve relationship,indicating the carbon emissions will still continue to increase.

关 键 词：碳排放 STIRPAT模型 主成分分析 影响因素 吉林省 

分 类 号：X205[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F205[经济管理—国民经济]