巨灾影响的全球性:以东日本大地震的经济影响为例  

Global economic impacts of large-scale disasters: case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake

作　　者：孟永昌 王铸[1,2] 吴吉东[1,2] 史培军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家外国专家局和教育部111计划(B08008);国家自然科学基金项目(41571492)~~

摘　　要：近年来,巨灾经济影响的全球性受到了社会各界越来越多的关注。通过构建混合国际投入产出模型,从需求端的角度定量评估了东日本大地震对世界各国各个生产部门的经济影响。结果表明:(1)东日本大地震对世界其他各国的经济产量影响非常显著,主要集中在金属制品业、交通运输设备制造业以及电子与光学设备制造业等;(2)在受影响的国家和地区中,以中国、美国、韩国、澳大利亚、德国等最为显著,且不同国家和地区受到影响的部门结构也各不相同。研究从区域间产业关联的角度揭示了巨灾影响的全球性问题,对于全球尺度上的巨灾风险管理具有参考价值。In recent years,large-scale disasters are attracting higher attentions from all walks of society. In this research,mixed international input- output model was built and used to assess the economic impacts caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake on each sector of every country from the perspective of demand side. The results show that：（ 1） the total economic impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake on other countries and regions are significant. The most damaged sectors include metal product,communication equipment,electrical and optical equipment etc.;（ 2） China,America,Korea,Australia and Germany are the most significantly affected countries in all affected countries. Moreover,different countries have different damaged sectors. This paper tries to reveal the global economic impact of large-scale disasters from the perspective of multi- regional industry linkage,which contributes to the risk management of large-scale disasters on the global scale.

关 键 词：巨灾 全球化 国际投入产出模型 经济影响 东日本大地震 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]