滑坡三维破坏概率计算  

Failure Probability Calculation of Three-dimensional Landslide

作　　者：汤罗圣[1] 颜廷舟[1] 邓长青[1] 岳敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省交通规划设计院,湖北武汉430051

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2015年第6期164-167,共4页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

摘　　要：[目的]对滑坡的三维破坏概率进行计算和验证,为滑坡稳定性定量评价提供一种新思路。[方法]采用FLAC 3D数值模拟软件,运用Rosenblueth方法计算滑坡的三维破坏概率,将其计算结果与二维破坏概率进行对比研究。[结果]以三峡库区某滑坡为例,该滑坡在2种计算工况下的三维破坏概率分别为13.57%和21.77%,属低危险性,与滑坡实际情况基本一致,而滑坡二维破坏计算结果属中等危险性。[结论]Rosenblueth方法计算的滑坡三维破坏概率能较好地评价滑坡的稳定性,其评价结果比二维破坏概率评价结果更为可靠。[Objective]Landslide occurrence probability was calculated and verificated using three-dimensional model to provide a new way for quantitative evaluation of landslide stability.[Methods]Rosenblueth method was used to calculate the probability of three-dimensional landslide by FLAC 3Dnumerical simulation software.Its result was compared with the one calculated by two-dimensional probability model.[Results]Taking a slope in the three gorges reservoir area as an example,we calculated the landslide probability under two kinds of working condition using two and three dimensional models.According to the result form the three dimensional model,the probability were 13.57% and 21.77%,respectively,both belonging to low risk level.These probabilities were thought to be the actual situation.However,the calculated probabilities from two-dimensional model were as high as medium risk level.[Conclusion]Rosenblueth method performed more reliable than two-dimensional probability evaluation models do in evaluating landslide stability.

关 键 词：有限元强度折减法 ROSENBLUETH方法 三维破坏概率 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]