非财务因素对企业债信用等级迁移的影响——基于Logistic模型的实证研究  

Effect of Non-Financial Information Changes on Credit Rating Transition of Corporate Bonds:An Empirical Research on Logistic Model

作　　者：孙克[1] 

机构地区：[1]嘉兴学院商学院,浙江嘉兴314001

出　　处：《嘉兴学院学报》2016年第1期66-71,共6页Journal of Jiaxing University

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ12G01003);浙江省访问学者专业发展项目(FX2013106)

摘　　要：应用logistic模型对非财务信息指标的影响进行实证检验,发现企业前景和宏观经济状况的变化都对企业债信用等级迁移具有统计上显著的影响,而在企业前景和宏观经济状况一定的情况下,需要特别关注的财务指标是资产负债率和流动比率,尤其是资产负债率的变化。资产负债率上升则企业债发生信用降级的概率会大幅增大,如果流动比率上升则企业债发生信用降级的概率会降低。This paper uses logistic model to test the effect of non-financial information changes on credit rating transitions of corporate bonds conclusions and finds out that both the change of the prospect of corporate development and the change of macro-economy have significant influences on the transition of credit rating.With constant prospect of corporate development and macro-economy,the asset-liability ratio and quick ration are very important for the determination of credit rating transition,especially the asset-liability ratio.With the increase of asset-liability ratio,the probability of downgrades of corporate bonds would increase,and with the increase of quick ratio,the probability of downgrades of corporate bonds would decrease..

关 键 词：企业债 信用等级迁移 影响因素 非财务信息 

分 类 号：F279.23[经济管理—企业管理]