贵州喀斯特山地碳足迹和植被碳承载力动态研究  

Dynamics of Carbon Footprint and Vegetation Carbon Carrying Capacity in Guizhou Karst Mountain

作　　者：魏媛[1] 蔡绍洪[1] 王名绍 

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学管理学院,贵州贵阳550004

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第2期172-176,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2014年度贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学基地项目(2014JD102);国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL085)

摘　　要：为了解贵州喀斯特山地碳排放与碳固定的平衡状况及其动态变化规律。利用2002-2012年贵州省能源消费量及植被面积等数据，通过构建数量模型，分析碳足迹、植被碳承载力和碳生态压力指数等指标的动态变化规律。研究结果表明：贵州省碳足迹总量由2002年的12643．6677吨上升到2012年的35153．63万吨，增长幅度为278．03％，年均增长16．18％，其中化石能源消费的碳足迹占总碳足迹的84．35％-93．78％，表明化石能源消费是导致碳足迹增长的主要因素。同期植被碳承载力从2002年的8988．8377吨上升-12012年的15032．65万吨，增长幅度为67．24％，年均增长6．11％，其中森林固碳量76．94％-85．63％，园地固碳量占11．79％-21．00％，农作物仅占1．90％-3．48％，揭示森林的固碳量最高。2002-2012年碳赤字呈现出上升的趋势，由2002年的3654．83万吨上升到2012年的20120．98万吨；碳生态压力指数由2002年的1．41上升到2012年的2．34，而单位GDP碳足迹表现出下降的趋势，从2002年的10．17吨／万元下降到2012年的5．13吨／万元。分析结果表明贵州在碳减排方面的政策措施有一定成效，但碳排放与碳固定之间不平衡，碳循环的生态环境压力有持续增加的趋势。In order to study the balance between carbon emission and carbon sequestration and the dynamic changes in Guizhou Karst mountain. Based on the data of energy consumption and a variety of vegetation area of Guizhou from 2002 to 2012, a quantitative model for analyzing the dynamic changes of the carbon footprint and vegetation carbon Carrying Capacity were constructed. This showed that Guizhou＇s carbon footprint increased from 12 643.66 × 10^4 ton in 2002 to 35 153.63 × 10^4 ton in 2012, by 278.03% or at a rate of 16.18% annually, and its consumption of fossil fuel contributed 84.35%- 93.78% to its total carbon foot-print, which shows that the increasing of fossil fuel consumption is the main cause of the growth of its carbon footprint. During the same period, vegetation carbon carrying capacity increased from 8988.83 ×10^4 ton in 2002 to 15 032.65 × 10^4 ton in 2012, by 67.24% or at a rate of 6.11%. Its forest carbon sequestration made up 76.94%- 85.63% of its total capacity, garden plot carbon fixation quantity accounted for 11.79% -21.00%, crops accounted for 1.90%- 3.48%, indicating that forest is the most important factor of the vegetation carbon carrying capacity. The.carbon deficit increased from 3654.83 × 10^4 ton in 2002 to 20 120.98 × 10^4 ton in 2012. The carbon ecological pressure index increased from 1.41 in 2002 to 2.34 in 2012. However, the carbon footprint per unit GDP decreased from10.17 ton/104 Yuan in 2002 to 5.13 ton/104 Yuan in 2012. The analysis indicated that the Guizhou Province has made some achievements in implementing its policies and strategies to reduce carbon emissions, but there was imbalance between carbon emissions and carbon fixation and Guizhou＇s ecological environment pressure in the carbon cycle increased continually.

关 键 词：碳足迹 碳承载能力 碳生态压力指数 碳循环 贵州喀斯特 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]