风险规避企业新产品投资时机、规模与定价决策  

Investment Timing,Scale and Pricing Strategies of New Products for Risk-aversion Enterprises

作　　者：燕夏敏[1] 林军[1] 崔文田[1] 钱艳俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710072

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第1期50-55,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71001084;71072128;71371149;71101115;71472146);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20100201120050;20100201110043);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(国际合作类)(SK2014043);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2015JM7379;2014JQ-7041)

摘　　要：运用均值—方差方法构建风险规避垄断企业新产品投资模型,得出投资时机、规模与定价决策。同时考虑宏观市场环境不确定性及新产品不确定性,并比较了二者对上述决策的影响。结果表明:企业预测到新产品"成功"的概率较大时会选择"早"投资;宏观市场环境不确定性越小,企业越倾向于"早"投资;新产品不确定性对投资时机的选择没有影响;企业"早"投资和"晚"投资的效用随宏观市场环境不确定性增大而减小,随新产品不确定性增大而增大。This paper establishes a model of new product investment for a monopoly firm with risk-aversion attitude by the mean-variance theory,and provides investment timing,scale,and pricing strategies. Considering both macro market environment uncertainty and new product uncertainty,it compares the effects of them on the above strategies. Result shows that,the firm will choose ＂earlier＂investment if the probability of success predicted is larger,when macro market environment uncertainty is decreased,＂earlier＂investment is more preferred; new product uncertainty has no effect on investment timing. The utilities of ＂earlier＂investment and＂later＂investment are decreased with macro market environment uncertainty,and increased with new product uncertainty.

关 键 词：新产品 需求不确定性 风险规避 新产品投资 定价 

分 类 号：F273.2[经济管理—企业管理] F272[经济管理—国民经济]