基于平均策略的城市轨道交通动态O-D矩阵估计  

Dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation for urban rail transit based on averaging strategy

作　　者：姚向明[1] 赵鹏[1] 禹丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2016年第1期92-99,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51478036)

摘　　要：基于最小二乘方法建立了一种滑动平均策略下的动态O-D（origin-destination）矩阵估计模型。通过对自动售检票数据统计分析,发现历史与当前客流的分布结构在连续时段内具有内在关联性,以此引入滑动平均策略来有效利用多个时段的客流信息,构建基于平均策略的动态O-D矩阵估计模型。定义基于O-D行程时间分布特征的客流到达系数,从而有效刻画交通流的动态特性,建立O-D流量与车站进出站客流量之间的影响关系。最后,以北京市轨道交通为对象进行案例分析,结果表明：从全日平均相对误差角度分析,模型估计精度提高约15%-20%,即有效提高城市轨道交通在较短时间范围内O-D矩阵估计精度。A dynamic Origin-Destination（O-D）matrix model based on least square approach is proposed for urban rail transit using moving-average strategy.Statistic analysis of historic automatic fare collection records shows that,in continuous periods,there is a strong average O-D flow relevance between priori passenger flow and current passenger flow.Therefore,a dynamic O-D matrix estimation model is established based on moving-average strategy.This model can utilize the priori flow information more efficiently.A passenger flow arrival coefficient based on the distribution of OD travel time is defined to characterize the dynamics of traffic flow,thus establishing the relationship between O-D flow and in-and-out flow at stations.Finally,a case analysis of Beijing rail transit network is carried out.Results show that,comparing with existing model,the accuracy of the proposed model is improved about 15% -20% from the viewpoint of average relative deviation in a day.The proposed model can improve the accuracy of dynamic O-D matrix estimation in short time range for urban rail transit greatly.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 动态O-D矩阵估计 最小二乘法 城市轨道交通 滑动平均策略 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]