河南省环境经济协调发展动态耦合评价——基于云模型的研究  

The Dynamic Coupling Analysis for Coordinated Development of the Environment and Economy of Henan:Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：李新杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中原工学院经济管理学院,郑州450007 [2]中原工学院系统与工业工程技术研究中心,郑州450007

出　　处：《中原工学院学报》2015年第5期28-33,共6页Journal of Zhongyuan University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173248);河南省软科学项目(132400410204)

摘　　要：在协同论的基础上,借鉴系统论中系统演化思想,构建了环境经济协调发展动态耦合模型,将云模型引入到环境经济协调发展的动态耦合评价中,对河南省1990-2012年间的环境经济协调发展状况进行了分析。研究表明:1990-2012年期间,河南省环境经济系统发展经历了螺旋上升的过程,由低级协调、共生发展,到相互胁迫、极限发展,直到演化至目前中度协调发展的状态。河南省环境经济协调发展动态耦合的过程表明,环境经济之间虽然存在矛盾,但通过相应经济手段、环境政策等外部条件的调节和干预,可以影响经济和环境序参量的演化速度及两者之间的相互关系,推进环境经济系统的有序演化。Based on synergetic theory and general system theory, the comprehensive evaluation analysis of the coordinated development between environment and economy of Henan province is conducted with the com- prehensive efficiency of coordination degree model, the dynamic coupling degree model and cloud model. The research results indicate that from 1990 to 2012, the coordinated development between environmental and eco- nomic system of Henan province has undergone a process of spiraling climbing-the environmental system and e- conomic system from the low-level coordination, symbiotic development stage, to the two order parameters of the environment and economy mutual coercion, interaction until the system evolution to a new development state. The environmental and economic system of Henan province has evolved to a state of moderate coordina- ted development from the low-level coordination development in early 1990＇s. However, the contradiction be- tween the environment and economy of Henan province still exist, which should adjust and intervene by corre- sponding economic measures, environmental policy and other external regulations to influence the evolution rate, direction and the interaction of economic parameters and environmental parameters and promote an order- ly evolution for environmental and economic system.

关 键 词：环境经济系统 耦合度 云模型 协调发展 

分 类 号：F019[经济管理—政治经济学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]