结构突变视角下政府灾害支出的平稳协调机制  

Coordination mechanism between coastal financial expenditure and disaster losses based on structural change

作　　者：袁顺[1] 赵昕[2] 南旭[2] 姜秉国[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100 [3]国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京100194

出　　处：《海洋环境科学》2016年第1期35-40,共6页Marine Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"风暴潮灾害脆弱性测度及损失补偿对策研究"(71373247);国家社科基金重大项目"突发性海洋灾害恢复力评估及市场化提升路径研究"(15ZDB171);中国海洋发展研究会青年项目"海洋灾害经济学基本理论和方法研究"(CAMAQN201413);山东省优秀中青年科学家奖励基金项目(BS2015HZ006);中国博士后基金项目(2015M572077)

摘　　要：完备的防灾减灾机制的构建离不开政府的指导和支持,以典型海洋风暴潮灾害为研究对象,结合我国1990年以来沿海地区政府防灾减灾财政支出和风暴潮经济损失数据,构建衡量政府灾害防御能力的协调度指标。利用傅里叶变换对政府补贴灾害的协调度进行检验,发现其存在突变特征并依据非线性平稳性检验对补贴协调度进行动态拟合。测度结果显示,从长期来看,防灾减灾总支出灾害协调度,科技教育支出灾害协调度、城市建设灾害协调度、社会福利灾害协调度均显著上升,指出降低对政府支出过度依赖、探索多元的防灾减灾机制是提高我国灾害应急管理效率的重要措施。The stable coordination of coastal disaster management and regional economic development requires guidance and support from the government. After taking coastal marine storm surge as the research object,this paper uses the data of disaster prevention expenses and economic losses to measure the ability of governmental disaster prevention, then, utilizing Flexible Fourier Estimate to test the indicatorswhile conducting their dynamic simulation. The results show that：on the one hand, the indicators includes certain structural changes and the Fourier approximation do reasonably well intesting the coordinationlevel; on the other hand, the governmental ability to cope with emergent disasters is strengthen periodically in recent years. In addition, the current situation of Disaster Prevention depending too much on the governmentsuggests that constructing diverse marine disaster prevention and mitigation mechanisms is a key method to promote the efficiency of China＇s marine disaster emergency management.

关 键 词：结构突变 傅里叶变换 非线性平稳 灾害协调度 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]