高超声速飞行器研制系统工程风险概率分析  

Probability-based risk analysis of hypersonic vehicle systems engineering

作　　者：沈作军[1] 柳青[2] 肖佳平 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学航空科学与工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国航天科工集团第三研究院,北京100074

出　　处：《航空学报》2016年第1期317-323,共7页Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica

摘　　要：针对高超声速飞行器研制工程的高风险特点,对工程决策方和研制方面临的不同类型风险进行了建模分析。基于系统方案或关键技术的固有风险概率和抽象化的研发与验证过程,分别计算分析了工程决策方误判验收通过不合格产品和研制方过度研发或重复验证较低失败概率产品的风险概率,进而提出了高风险研发项目中研制方过度研发风险的概念,明确了工程决策误判风险与研制方过度研发风险的相互影响规律,并基于概率方法建立了一种可以综合权衡决策方风险和研制方风险、合理确定研制周期的系统工程优化方法。Different risks associated with decision party and system developer are modeled and analyzed aiming at the high risk characteristics of hypersonic vehicle development. Based upon the inherent probabilistic risks of system design and criti- cal technologies, a generic test and verification process is adopted to calculate the probabilities of accepting unqualified sys- tems by the decision party, or over-testing low risk systems or technologies by the developer. The relation between decision risk and developer＇s risk is studied, and then a system engineering approach for balancing the risks as well as optimizing the development cycle is proposed based on probability calculation.

关 键 词：高超声速飞行器 研制工程 过度研发风险 决策方风险 风险概率 系统工程优化 

分 类 号：V37[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]