民航安全状况与社会经济指标关联分析  

Association analysis on civil aviation safety situation and social-economic indexes

作　　者：程明[1] 梁文娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2016年第1期158-162,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：民航局应用技术研发项目(20150204);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122014D04)

摘　　要：为了分析中国民航的安全趋势,基于中国民航1995-2014年安全生产历史数据和民航安全运行关系密切的26项社会经济指标,利用因子分析、相关系数等数学方法,建立了多元线性回归模型分析民航安全状况与社会经济指标的管理关联性。该模型表明对民航安全具有显著影响的社会经济指标包括国民经济、产业结构和人员素质。通过对比安全生产指标的拟合值和实际值,分析民航安全趋势的变化规律,并利用自回归移动平均模型预测2015-2018年民航安全生产指标值。计算结果显示该时间段内民航安全生产指标将处于历史高位,且呈现缓慢上升趋势。最后给出了针对行业安全监管、安全运行等方面的改进建议。In order to analyze the safety trend of civil aviation in China,based on the historical work safety data of Chinese civil aviation industry in 1995- 2014 and 26 social- economic indexes closely related to safe operation of civil aviation,by using the mathematical methods such as factor analysis and correlation coefficient,a multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the management association of civil aviation safety situation and social- economic indexes. The model showed that the social- economic indexes with significant influence to civil aviation safety included the national economy,industrial structure and personnel quality. By comparing the fitting values with the practical values of work safety indexes,the change laws of civil aviation safety trend were analyzed,and the value of civil aviation work safety index in 2015- 2018 was predicted by using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. The results showed that the civil aviation work safety index in this period would be at historical high level,and presented a slow rising trend. At last,the improvement suggestions about industrial safety y supervision and safe operation were put forward.

关 键 词：安全 民用航空 社会经济指标 多元线性回归 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]