基于IDE-WNN的短期风电功率预测及概率评估  

Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Based on IDE-WNN and Probabilistic Evaluation

作　　者：刘增良[1] 周松林[1] 周同旭[2] 

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院电气工程学院,安徽铜陵244000 [2]皖西学院机械与电子工程学院,安徽六安237012

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2016年第2期476-482,共7页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目(KJ2014 A258);铜陵学院人才科研启动基金(2014tlxyrc01)

摘　　要：风电功率预测包括确定性预测和不确定性预测。前者关注预测精度,后者关注预测结果包含的风险。将改进差分进化算法用于小波神经网络的参数优化,在不同方向上广泛地搜索最优解,提高了预测精度。通过计算风电功率预测值关于预测误差和功率波动的条件联合概率及对应的置信区间,对预测结果所包含的风险进行了较为全面地评估,通过仿真实验验证了所提方法的有效性。Wind power prediction usually concludes determined and uncertainly prediction. The former puts important on prediction accuracy and the later focus on the the risk of prediction results. For increase the prediction accuracy, an improved differential evolution algorithm was applied to widely search the optimal solution of wavelet neural network in different directions. By calculating joint conditional probability of wind power predictions about prediction error and power fluctuation, the risk of prediction results could be more fully assessed. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by simulation experiments.

关 键 词：风电功率预测 改进差分进化算法 小波神经网络 联合条件概率 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]